Air Force vs. Pacific prediction: model has Pacific by 15
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Air Force visits Pacific (2-1) at Alex G. Spanos Center in Stockton Sunday at 4 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Pacific a 15.3-point favorite, projecting an 82-67 final, and gives Pacific a 90% chance to win. The betting market has Pacific favored by 12 with a total of 164. The model leans Pacific -12.0 and Under 164.
Players to watch: Jaion Pitt of Pacific, 16 points a game; Adriel Nyorha of Pacific, 13.6 points a game; Gavin Ripp of Pacific, 5.9 points a game.
Model makes it PAC -15.3; the market says PAC -12. That is 3.3 points of daylight toward PAC, a strong lean on the favorite.
Under 16414.3
Model total 149.7 against a market 164: a big lean to the under by 14.3.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 133 rated WCC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
AF
PAC
Net rating
-9.7 #281
+6.1 #99
Offense
103.8 #214
104.1 #210
Defense
113.4 #318
98.0 #49
Tempo
74.9 #10
67.6 #327
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
