Portland State vs. Saint Mary's prediction: model has Saint Mary's by 19
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Portland State visits Saint Mary's (3-1) at University Credit Union Pavilion in Moraga Monday at 10 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Saint Mary's a 19.4-point favorite, projecting an 88-69 final, and gives Saint Mary's a 95% chance to win.
Players to watch: Mantas Juzenas of Saint Mary's, 16.8 points a game; Joshua Dent of Saint Mary's, 15.8 points a game; Thomas Ndong of Saint Mary's, 7.2 points a game.
No line yet. WCC lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 133 rated WCC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
PRST
SMC
Net rating
-1.9 #175
+20.4 #32
Offense
105.6 #177
121.2 #13
Defense
107.5 #209
100.9 #79
Tempo
70.8 #158
69.7 #224
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
