Chicago State vs. LMU prediction: model has LMU by 10
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Chicago State visits LMU (1-3) at Gersten Pavilion in Los Angeles Sunday at 4 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes LMU a 10-point favorite, projecting a 79-69 final, and gives LMU a 80% chance to win. The betting market has LMU favored by 18.5 with a total of 140.5. The model leans Chicago State +18.5 and Over 140.5.
Players to watch: Zion Sensley of LMU, 17.6 points a game; Jevon Porter of LMU, 14.2 points a game; Andy Sigiscar of LMU, 10.7 points a game.
Model makes it LMU -10.0; the market says LMU -18.5. That is 8.5 points of daylight toward CHST, a big lean on the underdog.
Over 140.57.3
Model total 147.8 against a market 140.5: a big lean to the over by 7.3.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 133 rated WCC players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
CHST
LMU
Net rating
-15.8 #338
-6.6 #241
Offense
100.2 #275
103.5 #216
Defense
116.1 #340
110.1 #259
Tempo
68.2 #299
69.9 #216
Games this season
5
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
