Valparaiso Beacons
Neutral · model win chance 74%
73
Preview · Sat 11/21, 8 PM ET
· How to watch: YouTube
· Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
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The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 1:33 PM ETVAL -7.9model spread
138.2model total
65possessions
No line yet. Sun Belt lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Kerrington Kiel TROY · F
+2.5#24 overall in Sun Belt
Offensive engine
Sam Walters TROY · F
+3.4#8 offense in Sun Belt
Defensive anchor
Donovan Oday TROY · G
+3.6#11 defense in Sun Belt
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 187 rated Sun Belt players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| TROY | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | -6.2 #235 | +5.9 #105 |
| Offense | 102.8 #230 | 109.3 #118 |
| Defense | 109.0 #245 | 103.4 #126 |
| Tempo | 66.8 #346 | 68.6 #282 |
| Games this season | 4 | 3 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Sun Belt lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Trojans | 3 | 121 | same |
| Valparaiso Beacons | non-Sun Belt team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.