Norfolk State vs. Georgia State prediction: model has Georgia State by 13
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Norfolk State visits Georgia State (1-3) at GSU Convocation Center in Atlanta Sunday at 1 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Georgia State a 13.2-point favorite, projecting an 80-67 final, and gives Georgia State a 86% chance to win. The betting market has Georgia State favored by 12 with a total of 143.5. The model leans Georgia State -12.0 and Over 143.5.
Players to watch: Jacolb Fredson-Cole of Georgia State, 13.2 points a game; Chris Jones of Georgia State, 11.1 points a game; Mason Nicholson of Georgia State, 3.6 points a game.
Georgia State traveled about 1,996 miles to Atlanta.
Model makes it GAST -13.2; the market says GAST -19. That is 5.8 points of daylight toward NORF, a big lean on the underdog.
Under 148.51.5
Model total 147.0 against a market 148.5: a lean lean to the under by 1.5.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 187 rated Sun Belt players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
NORF
GAST
Net rating
-21.5 #359
-7.8 #260
Offense
95.0 #330
102.6 #240
Defense
116.5 #345
110.4 #263
Tempo
69.0 #268
70.4 #182
Games this season
4
4
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
