Mercyhurst vs. James Madison prediction: model has James Madison by 13
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Mercyhurst visits James Madison (1-2) at Atlantic Union Bank Center in Harrisonburg Sunday at 4 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes James Madison a 13.2-point favorite, projecting a 75-62 final, and gives James Madison a 86% chance to win. The betting market has James Madison favored by 12.5 with a total of 138.5. The model leans James Madison -12.5 and Under 138.5.
Players to watch: Adrian Myers of James Madison, 11.4 points a game; Garrett Sundra of James Madison, 10.7 points a game; Preston Fowler of James Madison, 3.3 points a game.
Model makes it JMU -13.2; the market says JMU -12.5. That is 0.7 points of daylight toward JMU, a slight lean on the favorite.
Under 138.52.2
Model total 136.3 against a market 138.5: a lean lean to the under by 2.2.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 187 rated Sun Belt players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
MERC
JMU
Net rating
-14.3 #324
+0.1 #155
Offense
93.0 #350
108.4 #130
Defense
107.3 #203
108.3 #225
Tempo
67.2 #338
69.6 #230
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
