North Carolina Tar Heels
Home · model win chance 86%
83
Preview · Fri 11/20, 9 PM ET
· How to watch: ACC Network
· Tickets from $17
· Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
· ESPN gamecast ↗
· Game notes (printable)
· Share this preview
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 1:33 PM ETUNC -13.0model spread
153.3model total
75possessions
No line yet. Sun Belt lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall
Khaman Maker MRSH · C
+6.9#4 overall in Sun Belt
Offensive engine
Bryce Slay MRSH · G
+2.2#15 offense in Sun Belt
Defensive anchor
Luke Rasmussen MRSH · G
+3.6#10 defense in Sun Belt
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 187 rated Sun Belt players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
| MRSH | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Net rating | +3.0 #132 | +14.9 #56 |
| Offense | 105.0 #190 | 111.6 #80 |
| Defense | 101.9 #96 | 96.7 #40 |
| Tempo | 73.9 #26 | 71.9 #89 |
| Games this season | 4 | 4 |
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
Line, rest and travel
No line posted yet. When Sun Belt lines post →
| Team | Rest days | Miles in | Time zone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall Thundering Herd | 2 | 255 | same |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | non-Sun Belt team, not tracked | ||
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.