Bowling Green edged Georgia State 76-73 on the road in Atlanta.
Zach Howell led Bowling Green with 28 points and 8 rebounds. Jacob Meyer had 25 points and 7 assists for Georgia State. Josiah Shackelford led all players with 9 rebounds for Bowling Green.
Bowling Green had 38 points in the paint to Georgia State's 18. Bowling Green covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 5.2 points.
Scoring · Bowling Green: Zach Howell 28, Josiah Shackelford 12, Makhi Leach 12, Tristan Beckford 12, Preston Squire 8, Christ Essandoko 2, Juan Cranford Jr. 2. Georgia State: Jacob Meyer 25, Jaden Jackson 20, David Thomas 14, Jacolb Fredson-Cole 10, Chris Jones 4.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
BGSU 72, GAST 75model score
-2.2model spread (home)
147.2model total
5.2points off the final margin
UnderdogBGSU +3.51.3WonUnder 161.514.3Won
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Close
-3.5
161.5
-162
136
DraftKings via ESPN
Margin -3 (home)ATS BGSU coveredTotal 149 → under
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
BGSU
non-Sun Belt team, not tracked
GAST
–
0
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
