Tarleton State vs. Drake prediction: model has Drake by 9
By Hardwood Bricks staff ·
Tarleton State visits Drake (3-0) at Knapp Center in Des Moines Monday at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Drake a 9.3-point favorite, projecting a 76-67 final, and gives Drake a 78% chance to win.
Players to watch: Jon Carroll of Drake, 22.3 points a game; Dre Kindell of Drake, 14.7 points a game; Justin Burns of Drake, 7.8 points a game.
The model's call
Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:02 AM ET
Tarleton State Texans6722% to winDrake Bulldogs7678% to win
DRKE -9.3model spread
142.7model total
69possessions
No line yet. Missouri Valley lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.
Players to watch
Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 146 rated Missouri Valley players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.
Team ratings
TAR
DRKE
Net rating
-12.2 #304
-4.3 #211
Offense
96.3 #322
104.2 #207
Defense
108.5 #234
108.5 #235
Tempo
70.8 #155
69.0 #270
Games this season
4
3
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.
