Away · model win chance 7%
72
Memphis Tigers
Home · model win chance 93%
90
Preview · Sun 11/22, 2 PM ET · How to watch: ESPN+ · Tickets from $25 · FedExForum, Memphis, TN · ESPN gamecast ↗ · Game notes (printable) · Share this preview

The model's call

Rating model v1 · updated Sun Nov 15, 11:33 AM ET
Evansville Purple Aces 727% to win Memphis Tigers 9093% to win
MEM -18.0model spread
162.6model total
71possessions

No line yet. Missouri Valley lines usually post about a day ahead; once books post, the model's side and total leans show here in color.

OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Projections come from opponent-adjusted offense, defense and pace for every D-I team, with home court. Player absences are not in the number yet. A lean is the gap between the model and the market, not a guarantee. 21+.

Players to watch

Box-score ratings, points per 100 possessions vs an average D-I player
Best overall is the top net rating among regulars in this game; offensive engine and defensive anchor are the best on each end. Ranks are among 146 rated Missouri Valley players. Early in the season these lean on last year's numbers. Tap a player for his profile.

Team ratings

EVANMEM
Net rating-13.3 #315+6.8 #95
Offense99.9 #279117.7 #33
Defense113.2 #312111.0 #278
Tempo69.0 #26772.0 #82
Games this season43
Per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent and venue; # is the D-I rank of 365. Defense: lower is better. Full table on the ratings page.

Line, rest and travel

No line posted yet. When Missouri Valley lines post →

TeamRest daysMiles inTime zone
Evansville Purple Aces4239same
Memphis Tigersnon-MAC team, not tracked
Miles are an estimate from the travel model.