Miami (OH) beat Evansville 86-78 on the road in Evansville.
Kyle Waltz led Miami (OH) with 19 points. Bryce Quinet had 30 points and 8 assists for Evansville. Walton, Kentucky, native Aaron Gutman led all players with 7 rebounds for Evansville.
Miami (OH) had 24 fast-break points to Evansville's 3. Evansville covered the closing spread. Our model missed the final margin by 1.3 points.
Miami (OH) vs. Evansville prediction: model has Miami (OH) by 9
Miami (OH) visits Evansville (2-1) at Ford Center in Evansville Saturday at 2 PM ET on ESPN+.
Our model makes Miami (OH) a 9.3-point favorite, projecting an 80-71 final, and gives Miami (OH) a 78% chance to win. The betting market has Miami (OH) favored by 9 with a total of 154. The model leans Miami (OH) -9.0 and Under 154.
Players to watch: AJ Casey of Evansville, 13.8 points a game; Caden Symons of Evansville, 8.7 points a game; Makuei Riek of Evansville, 7.3 points a game.
What the model said
Projected that morning with only earlier games
M-OH 80, EVAN 71model score
+9.3model spread (home)
151.5model total
1.3points off the final margin
UnderdogEVAN +9.50.2WonUnder 155.54.0Lost
OverUnderFavoriteUnderdogThe colored fill is the gap between the model and the market: a full chip means 6 points or more. The number on each chip is that gap.
Leans are against the DraftKings closing line ESPN carries. Season record on the ratings page.
Line and result
Spread (home)
Total
ML home
ML away
Source
Open (first seen)
+9.0
151.5
our snapshots
Latest
+9.5
165.5
3950.0
-100000.0
our snapshots (8 books)
Close
+9.5
155.5
370
-485
DraftKings via ESPN
Margin -8 (home)ATS EVAN coveredTotal 164 → over
Travel and rest coming in
Team
Rest days
Miles in
Road streak
Time zone
M-OH
non-MAC team, not tracked
EVAN
3
161
–
same
Rest is full days off between games. Miles are an estimate from the travel model (see the travel page).
